Essays

Gold Derivatives: Hitting the Iceberg

What is the size of the total short physical gold position, or put another way, how much gold from their vaults have the central banks collectively deposited, leased or swapped into the market through the bullion banks? Taking advantage of guidelines promulgated by the International Monetary Fund, most central banks report their gold reserves without providing a breakdown between bullion held in their vaults and gold receivables owed to them on account of deposits, loans and swaps, as would be required under more normal accounting practice. Thus the size of the total short physical position continues to stir controversy, with Gold Fields Minerals Services sticking to its estimate of 4000 to 5000 tonnes notwithstanding the mountain of research by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and its associates suggesting an amount two to three times as large. See, e.g., T. Wood, "That gold short position," Mineweb (December 5, 2003).

Abstract

In previous work I drew attention to the link between the rapid growth of interest rate derivatives [IRDs] at Chase and Morgan subsequent to an unprecedented gold market preemptive selling episode in 1996. This report will further explore the likely interventional reasons behind this extreme interest rate derivatives growth. In addition, an important 1998 Federal Reserve consultant's publications that describe exact methodology needed to enforce the government's long-term interest rate policies are reviewed. Also the report shows preliminary evidence that since Summer 2003 the long interest rates appear to be under the controlling influence of those Federal Reserve policies. Finally, issues threatening the gold and interest rate interventional operations of the Federal Reserve are briefly discussed.

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