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Alasdair Macleod: Gold in 2024
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, December 28, 2023
To market observers, gold appears ready to break into new high ground measured in all the major currencies. In fact, it is the currencies’ collapse in their values, rather than gold rising. Appreciating this distinction is vital for understanding the future of the gold/currency relationship.
To support this thesis, the relative price volatility for commodities and energy in dollars and gold are compared. Gold wins hands down as the objective value in commodity transactions. It is hardly surprising, bearing in mind that gold is legal money and currencies are credit with counterparty risk.
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Therefore, the prospects for the dollar as the leading fiat currency should be considered, not gold. And the outlook for the dollar is not good. Going into a recession, commercial banks are highly leveraged, so credit is being withheld from the private sector, guaranteeing a deepening recession. It is from here that stimulus and corporate rescues will add additional deficit spending, which will be highly inflationary in nature.
The current decline in bond yields will prove to be misleading. The outlook for both inflation and time preference is for higher rates instead.
To make matters worse, the US Government is ensnared in a distressing debt trap. And beyond current short-term funding by T-bills, sufficient buyers of US Government longer-term debt are hard to discern. Foreigners, who have been the marginal buyers in the past, are becoming net sellers.
2024 is shaping up to be the year when the dollar loses international credibility, and its value measured in real, legal money -- which is only gold -- will decline accordingly. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold-in-2024?gmrefcode=gata
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