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Pam and Russ Martens: Which banks owe billions on Russian credit default swaps?
By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, March 7, 2022
There are a known $41 billion in credit default swaps on Russian debt. There are likely many billions more in unknown amounts.
There are also billions more in credit default swaps on state-owned Russian corporate debt and non state-owned Russian corporate debt.
In addition to Wall Street not knowing which global banks and other financial institutions are on the hook to pay out on the credit default swap protection they sold in case of a Russian sovereign debt default (or Russian corporate debt default), there are also approximately $100 billion of Russian sovereign debt (whose default is looking more likely) sitting on the balance sheets of foreign banks.
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Put it all together and you have the makings of a replay of the 2008 banking crisis, when banks backed away from lending to each other because they didn't know who would fall next from toxic subprime exposure. That led to a liquidity crisis and the unprecedented involvement of the Federal Reserve secretly pumping trillions of dollars into the megabanks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties.
The cost of buying a five-year credit default swap on Russian debt has spiked from 5% of the total value of the debt in early February to 46% last Friday to 58% this morning. The market has now priced in an 80% likelihood of default. ...
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