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Alasdair Macleod: Money supply and rising interest rates
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, January 6, 2021
The establishment, including the state, central banks and most investors are thoroughly Keynesian, the latter category having profited greatly in recent decades from their slavish following of the common meme.
That is about to change. The world of continual Keynesian stimulus is coming to its inevitable end with prices rising beyond the authorities' control. Being blinded by neo-Keynesian beliefs, no one is prepared for it.
... Dispatch continues below ...
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This article explains why interest rates are set to rise substantially in this new year. It draws on evidence from the inflation crisis of the 1970s, and points out the similarities and the fact that currency debasement today is far greater and more global than 50 years ago. In the UK, half the current rate of monetary inflation for half the time -- just for one year -- led to gilt coupons over 15%. And today we have Fed watchers who can only envisage a Fed funds rate climbing to 2% at most.
A key factor will be the discrediting of this Keynesian hopium, likely to be replaced by a belated conversion to the monetarism that propelled Milton Friedman into the public eye when the same thing happened in the mid-'70s. The realisation that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon will come too late for policy makers to stop it.
The situation is closely examined for America, its debt, and its dollar. But the problems do not stop there: The risks to the global system of fiat currencies and credit from rising interest rates and the debt traps that will be sprung are acute everywhere. ...
... For the reainder of the analysis:
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